Since the Prime Minister returned to the Commons with a date for the Referendum on our future membership of the European Union, there has been a flurry of interest about which way each MP will be voting: 'in' or 'out'.
So far, like most of the people I speak to who aren't card carrying members of the Westminster bubble, I have been genuinely undecided which way to cast my vote on 23 June.
To say that I do not hold the EU in high regard is an understatement. As a former business owner I am frustrated when EU red tape entangles enterprise. As a proud 'Brit' I am distressed by the checks on our sovereignty. Frankly, I find the EU capacity for wasting money nothing short of flagrant and appalling, especially in the context of the tough fiscal choices we have had to make in recent years domestically.
In my heart I feel that Britain could survive and indeed thrive outside the EU. We are the fifth biggest economy in the world. We have a wealth of highly skilled workers and talented business owners driving economic innovation. There are 2.2 million more people in work here than in 2010 and we are creating employment faster than any G7 country.
However, in my head I am plagued by the realisation that this is a pivotal decision, one from which there is no turning back. No country has ever left the EU before and, while Switzerland and Norway are often heralded as examples of how countries flourish beyond its grip, I've visited both in recent years and seen that, in reality, they are both trapped firmly in its shadow. Both countries are bound by EU regulations and directives, compelled to allow free movement of people and impose costly burdens on business, in exchange for trade deals.
As one of my parliamentary colleagues put it, it's like we are on a bus that's driven by a lunatic, do we stay on board and try to reason with the driver, or jump out and risk being crushed by its wheels.
To help me make up my mind I set about trying to establish, as best as I could, what the impact of a potential Brexit could be on our local area.
We know that Gosport suffers more than many of our more affluent neighbours during times of economic uncertainly. When I was elected back in 2010, our area was still suffering from years of neglect thanks to a Labour Government that deemed our peninsula 'strategically unimportant.' Being treated as peripheral meant the recession hit us bitingly hard. That's why bringing prosperity to our local area has been my top priority as MP. Recently things are really starting to look up, we have attracted significant Government investment, companies want to do businesses here and unemployment has fallen by 64% since 2010.
Yet last week a local small business owner told me that they are already experiencing the negative impact of market uncertainty due to the Brexit debate. Their customers, who are big businesses, have simply pressed the pause button in this time of uncertainty.
Our currency's volatility backs this up: the pound worryingly dropped to its lowest value since 2007 last week.
What do our biggest local employers think? BAE Systems, Airbus Group UK, QinetiQ, Babcock, IBM, Serco and Northrop-Grumman have all made clear their support for Britain remaining in the EU. We depend on these big companies for local jobs and economic prosperity. In turn, these companies depend upon accessing the European single market to which we send 45% of our exports. In the event of a Brexit the best guess is that renegotiating our terms of trade could be a long and painstaking process, during which Britain's attractiveness to international investors may suffer.
Which brings me back to where I started. In 2010 this country was on the brink of bankruptcy. In 2016 we are the fifth biggest economy in the world, there are 2.2 million more people in work and we are creating employment faster than any G7 country. We have achieved all this within the EU. Should we now put that at risk?
In my heart the emotional argument for a 'Brexit' is still enticing – the EU system is flawed and needs further reform.
But, in my head, there is too much uncertainty about the economic implications of leaving for me to risk the prosperity and security of Britain and the people I represent.
My head wins – there is too much at stake.
This is not something I intend to campaign on. Ultimately, because this Government delivered on its manifesto promise to hold a public referendum, my vote is just one among millions. It is right that every voter should come to their own conclusion. It is right that this important choice ultimately belongs to the British public.
